CURRENT GLOBAL COFFEE SITUATION

Total coffee production in 2013/14 was estimated at 146.8 million 60kg bags, very slightly down on the 147.5 million bags produced in 2012/13. The drought in Brazil came after its 2013/14 harvest had ended, but will have a significantimpact on production in 2014/15 and 2015/16.

Coffee Production in Africa

Production in Africa fell slightly to 16.2 million bags, or 11% of the world total. Ethiopia is the largest producer in the region, on 6.5 million bags, followed by Uganda (3.7 million) and Côte d’Ivoire (1.9 million). Tanzania was in the off year of its biennial cycle, so production was lower on nearly 800,000 bags, while Kenya was relatively unchanged on 863,000 bags. Africa produced 9.2 million bags of Arabica coffee compared to 7 million of Robusta in 2013/14.

Coffee Production in Asia and Oceania

Asia and Oceania accounts for nearly one third of world coffee production, on 46.6 million bags, up from 45.3 million in 2012/13. Vietnam, the second largest producer in the world, saw output increase by an estimated 10% to 27.5 million, which would represent its highest crop on record. Production in Indonesia was 11% lower on 11.7 million, while India was mostly unchanged on 5.1 million. Overall, Asia and Oceania was responsible for two thirds of the world’s Robusta production in 2013/14, compared to 8% of Arabica.

Coffee Production in Central America

In Central America, production was badly affected by the outbreak of coffee leaf rust, which drove output down to 16.8 million bags, 99% of which was Arabica, compared to 18.5 million in 2012/13 and 20.2 million in 2011/12, before the rust outbreak. Almost every country in the region has suffered production disruption over the last two years, although some signs of recovery are starting to emerge. The largest producer in the region is Honduras, where output was up 1% to 4.6 million, but down from 5.9 million two years previously. Mexico was 9.5% lower on 3.9 million and Guatemala down 16% on 3.2 million. Nicaragua is starting to recover, up 7% on 2 million bags, but Costa Rica is down 10% on 1.4 million, and El Salvador has been particularly badly affected, down by 45% to 742,000 bags. Overall, coffee leaf rust in Central America cost the region an estimated US$245.9 million in 2013/14, in addition to US$369.3 million in 2012/13.

Coffee Production in South America

Finally, in South America, production was mostly unchanged on 67.2 million bags, or 46% of the world total. Brazil saw a 3% decrease to 49.2 million bags, a record for an off year crop in the biennial cycle. Colombia has been recovering strongly after several years of below-average production, up by 22% in 2013/14 to 12.1 million bags. Peru, however, has also been affected by coffee leaf rust, and is down 3% on 4.3 million bags. Production in South America is 81% Arabica and 19% Robusta.